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When are Aussie retail sales and how could they affect AUD/USD?

Aussie retails sales overview

Retail sales are due today for the month of October scheduled for a 00:30GMT.

The forecasts are ranging from an increase of anywhere between 0.1% to 0.6% while analysts at Westpac said they are seen to rise 0.3% following a subdued Q3, albeit an improvement on a flat September.  However, if the Australian Industry Group’s latest PSI dropping this morning is anything to go by, today's data could well be poor. “The retail trade sub-sector’s index lifted to 46.3 points in November, indicating a further deterioration in conditions, albeit at a slower pace,” the Ai Group said.

Aussie retail sales have either fallen or come in flat in the past Q3 according to official data released by the ABS. this comes at the same time that consumers have suffered a spike in electricity, gas and petrol prices while soft wage growth over the same period has also coincided with the poor results in the retail sales data.

How could retail sales affect AUD/USD? 

With the greenback already on the front foot, an inline data or miss could well send the Aussie off a cliff being the 0.76 handle with a target to the downside of 0.7550 and recent double bottom lows. On a positive shift in the data, the Aussie could be on course for a break of 0.7640 and 14th  / 27th Nov highs However, with the RBA around the corner, albeit unexpected to change policy, traders will not wish to be too positioned one way or another while there is still the risk of a dovish twist to the statement. 

Key notes:

  • Asian FX Outlook: Passage of US tax reform underpins the Greenback
  • AUDUSD: The near term momentum indicators look mixed
  • AUD/USD analysis: waiting for RBA´s decision

About Aussie Retail sales:

The Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a survey of goods sold by retailers is based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes and it's considered as an indicator of the pace of the Australian economy. It shows the performance of the retail sector over the short and mid-term. Positive economic growth anticipates bullish trends for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.

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