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EUR: Key support pegged at $1.18 - BBH

Analysts at BBH note that the euro fell for the first week since the end of October and the high for the week was set on Monday near $1.1960, but even ahead of the weekend, it had traded as high as $1.1940. 

Key Quotes

“The US 2-year premium rose another couple of basis points on the week and extended its streak to the 12th week and 14 of the past 15 weeks.  The 10-year interest rate differential widened by six basis points to push above 200 bp for the first time since April.  Over the past 60 sessions, the correlation between percentage change of the euro and the short and long-term rate differentials are almost identical at 0.52.” 

“Key support for the single currency is pegged at $1.18. A break could signal another cent decline.   The MACD and Slow Stochastics are poised to turn lower next week.  The euro closed above the neckline of the potential head and shoulder pattern that we identified last week, which is found near $1.1850.  On the upside,  the euro appears poised to challenge the $1.1960 on its way to $1.20.  Previously it seemed that often unnamed ECB officials expressed concern when the euro pushed above $1.20.”   

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