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US: Expect some moderation in ISM manufacturing – Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect some moderation in US ISM manufacturing sentiment in November to 58.4 (Consensus: 58.3), from 58.7 in October and as disrupted supply chains get restored, they expect a continued decline in the supplier deliveries index.

Key Quotes

“This indicator jumped 7.3pp to 64.4 in September after Hurricanes Harvey and Irma caused widespread supply chain disruptions, the largest month-to-month increase since September 2005 after the landfall of Hurricane Katrina. As this measure returns to its previous trend, we expect a gradual drag on the topline index. The manufacturing sector appears to have mostly recovered from disruptions caused by the hurricanes. Incoming data such as the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys point to healthy expansion in activity. We expect this momentum to continue in Q4.”

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