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Forex Flash: EUR/USD year-end target at 1.27 – Scotiabank

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The demand for the shared currency remains subdued on Tuesday, anchored around the mid 1.2800s, as the spectre of Monday’s grim comments by Eurogroup Head J.Djisselbloem is still hovering over the markets.

Against the backdrop of bigger haircuts in bank deposits, imminent capital controls and a significant test for the banking sector on Thursday, Strategist Camilla Sutton at Scotiabank suggests, “Looking ahead, problems within Europe are likely to subject deposit and bond holders to bearing an increasing burden, shifting the risks of these investments”.

“Accordingly EUR is weak on all measures, and outflows are likely to continue… We expect EUR to trend lower and hold a year-end target of 1.27”, concludes Sutton.

Forex Flash: Recent drama reflects ongoing need of ECB for action – UBS

Despite all the reasons and evidence to the contrary, markets are not willing to aggressive sell the euro yet. The structural impediments and the less than 'whatever it takes' attitude assumed by the ECB with regard to Cyprus were clear, but perhaps most investors know that Cyprus is still a special case in some respects and the ECB is simply keeping its powder dry. However, “this also means that when true problems do occur, the ECB will need to act with full force and by then markets would have already started to price in significant problems.” notes Gareth Berry, a Research Analyst at UBS.
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Forex Flash: USD long positioning structural in nature vs. episodic – ANZ

The USD long positioning across most surveys is currently very significant, perhaps even extreme. Certainly recent developments in Europe have encouraged a cautionary stance from investors. “Our sense, however, is that USD long positions are also more structural in nature, and in effect reflect a view that the dollar has made an important secular turn, and will strengthen against most currencies going forward.” notes the ANZ Research Team.
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