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AUD/USD expected to test the vicinity of 0.77 – Commerzbank

In view of Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, there is scope for the pair to test the boundaries of the 0.7700 handle, where sits the 200-day sma.

Key Quotes

AUD/USD has at last started to erode its 20 day ma at .7630, this is encouraging near term but we need a close above here to confirm. We continue to favour a deeper corrective rebound towards the 200 day ma at .7695. The market reversed recently just ahead of strong support – namely the 2016-2017 uptrend line and double Fibonacci retracement at .7500-.7475 (50% retracement of the move up from the 2016 low AND the 78.6% retracement of the move seen from May 2017)”.

“The recent intermediate high on 2 nd November at .7729 will need to be overcome to alleviate immediate downside pressure to a trigger a retracement to .7828/.7886”.

“Below .7475 would trigger a deeper sell off to the .7330 May low”.

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