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Outlook on TRY stays cautious – Danske Bank

Senior Economist at Danske Bank Vladimir Miklashevsky noted the medium term prospects for the Turkish Lira remain cautious.

Key Quotes

“Accelerated inflation has postponed hopes of near-future monetary easing and is keeping the central bank hawkish despite pressure by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. In October, the Turkish central bank kept all its policy rates unchanged, and we expect the benchmark repo rate to remain unchanged in H1 18, given the current inflation outlook and the TRY’s turbulence. As EUR/TRY hit its record high of 4.5519 on 14 November 2017, inflation pressure increases on import prices”.

“We see weaker prospects for the TRY in the short term as carry trade exits will continue as we approach the Fed decision in December 2017. We remain cautious in the medium to long term”.

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