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OPEC: Risks of a disappointment - Nomura

OPEC members convene in Vienna next Thursday (30 November) for their 173rd Ordinary meeting and markets look to be anticipating an agreement between the parties to extend the oil production cap past Q1 2018, according to analysts at Nomura.

Key Quotes

“Signals and communications from various officials suggest the production cuts could be extended by about nine months, though the decision could be delayed until after the November meeting. Russia continues to show little urgency to make a decision until closer to March when the current cuts are due to expire. With an extension now looking well priced and net-long positioning at elevated levels, the reaction to the November meeting looks asymmetric, with risks tilted towards the market being disappointed.”

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