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ECB: Policy set until Sep 2018 - Westpac

Even though discussion of micro moves have surfaced, ECB policy is pretty much set until Sep 2018, unless there are large aberrations to current ECB projections, according to Tim Riddell, Research Analyst at Westpac.

Key Quotes

“This is probably more entrenched given the failure of Germany to form a coalition. Intervention of the normally ceremonial president may prompt the formation of a coalition, but the risk of new elections is material. This will delay policy progress. Macron’s reforms have hit EU budget constraints and so the lack of a German ally to push policy along will hamper his reforms. Meanwhile, Italian elections are likely to be called for March, providing another excuse to avoid reform. With no structural reforms on the horizon, ECB accommodation will remain the key growth support.”

“Bond spreads impact has been limited, but if US reforms advance, they could become the main driver of EUR/USD.”

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