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South Africa: SARB to keep its policy rate on hold - TDS

In line with the unanimous consensus analysts at TDS expect the SARB to keep its policy rate on hold today at 6.75%.

Key Quotes

“Since the 21 September meeting, the rand has weakened by 4.5% vs USD and about 3.5% against a trade-weighted basket. Oil prices have also moved higher, with Brent crude up almost 18% in rand terms since the last meeting. This combined with the prospects of renewed rand weakness if adverse ratings and/or political developments materialize, will keep the SARB on hold. Indeed the review of South Africa’s sovereign rating by S&P and Moody’s tomorrow overshadows the SARB meeting.”

“We think that the market remains too complacent ahead of the event, although, that said, the ZAR correction would likely be small at around 1-3% given the distribution of probabilities, and may offer an opportunity to reposition for the greater gains we forecast in 2018.”

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