Germany: Political uncertainty looms – BBH
Germany's political outlook is far from clear as after consulting with the German President, the FDP refuses to renew coalition talks, explains the research team at BBH.
“The only other potentially viable alternative is to woo back the SPD. The head of the SPD Schulz has ruled it out, but he is not the party. A survey suggested less than half of the SPD favor Schulz to run again for Chancellor after his disappointing campaign. In the CDU, Merkel is supported by 78% to run again.”
“Outside of the left-wing of the SPD which supports Schulz, the SPD may be more frightened by the prospect of another election. It had hoped that a few years in opposition would allow it to rebuild its base. An election now could see its fortunes fall further, and if it were to get less than one in five votes, an existential question would be raised.”
“On the other hand, joining another Grand Coalition could also put the future of the party at risk. Moreover, it is not clear that the CDU and SPD would be sufficient. Both parties drew the least voters in a generation and together are now polling a little more than 51% vs. 53.4% in September. One scenario has the SPD placing strong demands to re-join. However, one European policy there does not appear to be a significant difference, and on domestic policies, Merkel has often stolen their thunder (e.g., minimum wage and greater daycare provisions).”