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USD/JPY - Approaching 200-day MA support - Commerzbank

Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, says the USD/JPY pair is likely to test and defend the support offered by the 200-day MA at 111.77.

Key Quotes

USD/JPY remains on the defensive, having recently failed at the top of the range at 114.38/49 (May and July highs and the 2015-2017 downtrend).

It is approaching 111.77, the 200 day MA and Ideally, this will hold, in this vicinity also lies the top of the cloud at 111.47. While above here, the scope will remain for a recovery to 114.58 longer term. This is the breakpoint to the 118.60/66 January high.

Where are we wrong? The 111.65 mid-October low and 111.47 cloud guard the 109.55 mid-September low and in turn this support guards the 108.81/13 April and June lows as well as the September low at 107.32.


Short-Term Trend (1-3 weeks): Approaching the 2015-2017 resistance line.

Long-term trend (1-3 months): Is trying to bottom out but so far remains range bound.

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