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EUR: Cooler runnings after Merkel’s ‘Jamaica coalition’ talks breakdown - ING

In a lacklustre week for Eurozone data (with just PMI figures to note on Thu), it'll all be about ECB communications for EUR markets over the next five days, according to Viraj Patel, Foreign Exchange Strategist at ING.

Key Quotes

“The minutes to the Oct ECB meeting (Thu) will be surveyed for any active dissenters within the Governing Council, while investors will also be looking to speeches by Draghi (today), Couere (Tue) and Praet (Thu) for subtle clues over the timing of the ECB's first deposit rate hike. Though officials have made it clear that this will not occur until the taper process has concluded, we suspect EUR bulls will be looking to pounce as early as possible on any pre-emptive hawkish re-pricing at the front-end of the Eurozone rate curve.”

“We currently see this as summer 2018 story – after the passing of the Italian election risk – which could result in EUR/$ trading up to 1.25. Ahead of this, we expect consolidation in the 1.15-1.20 range, with fallout from the stalled German coalition talks adding a slight downside tilt to our EUR/$ bias this week. Expect the 1.1700/20 support area to hold for now.”

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