Eurozone: PMI and ECB minutes - Danske Bank
Next week, key data from the Eurozone includes the ECB minutes and PMI. Minutes from the October ECB meeting could well provide clues as to what will happen after September next year when the current QE programme is set to end, mentioned analysts from Danske Bank.
“In the euro area, we are awaiting the PMI figures, due for release on Thursday. Manufacturing PMI has been rising steadily throughout 2017 and reached 58.5 in October from 58.1 in September. It is now strikingly close to the 59.0 post-crisis peak reached in February 2011. Service PMIs also remain strong but after an increase in September to 55.8, Service PMI dropped to 55.0 in October. While survey expectations indicators point towards further increases with rising consumer confidence and high Ifo and ZEW expectations, we expect only a moderate increase as the euro appreciation in 2017 could have started to act as a drag on export orders. Thus, we expect manufacturing PMI to increase to 58.7 and service PMI to increase to 55.2.”
“The ECB minutes from the October meeting are also due for release on Thursday. At the October meeting, the ECB extended its QE programme for another nine months in 2018 but scaled down the monthly purchases to EUR30bn. In the minutes, focus will be on the Governing Council’s discussions regarding whether to put a definite end date to the QE programme, which might give insights regarding the likelihood of a possible tapering starting in Q4 18. In addition, it will be interesting to see how the governing council thinks about the economic development in its downscaling decision as the inflation outlook still remains subdued.”
“Note that German revised Q3 GDP and Ifo expectations figures are due for release on Thursday and Friday, respectively.”