EUR/SEK seen at 10.10 in a month’s view – Danske Bank
Chief Analyst at Danske Bank Jens Sorensen sees the Swedish Krona depreciating towards the 10.10 area within a month’s view.
“On EUR/SEK, the drastic deterioration of housing market sentiment has weighed heavily on the SEK over the past few weeks. We have repeatedly identified this as a key risk but it has not been the main scenario, so has not been reflected in our forecasts. Now it is materialising”.
“The money market has so far been relatively resilient but there is a high probability that the Riksbank will have to adjust, sending the first rate hike further into the future. In our view, the SEK will continue to trade with a house risk premium and therefore we have raised our forecast profile to 10.10 (previously 9.60), 10.10 (previously 9.50), 9.80 (previously 9.40) and 9.70 (previously 9.30) in 1M, 3M, 6M and 12M, respectively. In the medium term, we pencil in a tentative normalisation due to stretched valuations”.