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AUD/NZD: what's the outlook - well, all about aussie jobs of course - Westpac

Analysts at Westpac offered their outlook for the antipodean cross ahead of the key data event in Aussie jobs.

When is the Australian employment report and how could it affect the AUD/USD?

Key Quotes:

"AUD/NZD 1 day: Vulnerable to further downside below 1.1000 near term, but much will depend on today’s AU jobs data.

AUD/NZD 1-3 month: A resumption of the trend rise which started in June should test 1.13, contingent on AU economic data remaining supportive, commodity prices recovering, risk sentiment remaining elevated, and NZ politics weighing on the NZD. (25 Oct)

AU swap yields 1 day: The 3yr should open around 2.01%, the 10yr around 2.76%.

AU swap yields 1-3 month: Our RBA outlook (on hold throughout 2018) is anchoring short-maturity interest rates and should keep 3yr swap rates in a 1.80% to 2.30% range, as long as core inflation remains below 2%. Longer maturity rates will largely follow US rates. (4 Oct).

NZ swap yields 1 day: NZ 2yr swap rates should open unchanged at 2.17%, the 10yr down 1bp at 3.17%, in response to AU and US interest rates movement overnight.

NZ swap yields 1-3 month: Our RBNZ outlook (on hold throughout 2018) is anchoring short-maturity interest rates and should keep 2yr swap rates in a 2.10% to 2.50% range, as long as inflation remains below 2%.  Longer maturity rates will largely follow US rates. (4 Oct)"

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