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US: Focus on Empire State Survey and business inventories - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect manufacturers’ optimism in the Greater New York area to remain elevated in November and forecast a headline reading of 26 for the Empire State survey.

Key Quotes

“In October, the new orders and shipments indices both remained elevated, indicating sustained momentum in the near term. This appears consistent with elevated incoming data on industrial activity. A headline reading of 26 in November would be consistent with continued strength in the manufacturing sector.”

Business inventories: Inventory accumulation was strong in Q3 despite the hurricanes. Change in nonfarm inventory investment added a solid 0.65pp to Q3 real GDP growth. We expect a modest gain for the final estimates of September business inventories. In the aftermath of the recent hurricanes, September retail inventories fell 1.0% according to the Census Bureau’s advance estimate, but resilient growth in manufacturing and wholesale inventory investment would likely offset this weather related drop in the retail counterpart. September wholesale inventories increased at a steady 0.3% m-o-m and incoming data included modest upward revisions to July, pointing to resilient growth. Factory inventories also rose strongly by 0.7% in September.”

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