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AUD/USD: looking for a breakout of 0.7625-0.7730 range

  • AUD/USD consolidates awaiting the next catalysts.
  • AUD/USD trading with a bearish bias.  

AUD/USD has remained in a consolidated phase as we progress towards the Tokyo open. The Aussie met a four-month low at 0.7609 following a strong NAB August business conditions survey result. 0.7639 was scored ahead of the Chinese data dump that only proved to disappoint, sending the Aussie back to where it came from.

The European session bulls only managed a score of  0.7649 the high in late London before supply took the pair back to 0.7612 where bids were attracted for a drift towards the 21 hourly SMA at 0.7629. In NY, the pair consolidated and was supported, despite poor performances from the commodity sector, on a weak greenback. Next up,  we have Aussie jobs as the domestic data after US retail sales / CPI. 

US CPI / retail sales preview - Nomura

AUD/USD 1 day: 

"Survived the first break below its two-week-old range of 0.7625-0.7730, but not out of the woods and remains vulnerable to a retest," explained analysts at Westpac. 

AUD/USD 1-3 month: 

"We look for AUD/USD to finish the year around 0.76, so long as markets maintain a very high probability of a Fed interest rate rise in December along with a neutral RBA outlook deep into 2018 and commodity prices remain around recent levels (14 Nov)," the analysts explained on their wider outlook. 

AUD/USD levels

Analysts at Commerzbank explained that AUD/USD has started to erode Fibo support and the recent low at 0.7633/25, it is under pressure. "Failure here targets the 2016-2017 uptrend line at .7479. Key near-term resistance remains mid-October high at .7896 – its stays immediately negative below here. Initial resistance is the near term downtrend at .7728. Where are we wrong? Above the .8162 May 2015 peak lies the .8295 January 2015 high," the analysts added. 

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