US: Data likely to show recovery in economy - BBH
The US data is likely to show an economy recovering from the impact of the storms, and the stability of price pressures somewhat above the troughs seen earlier this year, feels the research team at BBH.
“Both the St. Louis and NY Fed GDP trackers are estimating growth in Q4 at a little more than 3%. While the quarter is nearly half over, and there is much data still to come, the take away is this appears another quarter of above-trend growth.”
“Headline October CPI may ease on softer gas prices, but the core rate is likely stable at 1.7% for the sixth consecutive month. Frankly, given the base effect, it may be difficult the year-over-year measure to head much higher over the next three months. Headline retail sales soared 1.6% in September as nature (storms), and rising prices conspired to flatter the data. However, a flattish report should be surprising in October. On the other hand, the GDP measure is expected to be a solid 0.3% after a 0.4% rise in September. Industrial output is expected to rise 0.5%, led by a similar rise in manufacturing.”