Next week’s key data and events - ING
"US headline inflation may dip back following a fall in gasoline prices. But pipeline pressures are continuing to build and we are optimistic for the outlook for core inflation, which has been surprisingly weak of late. That’s one factor behind our call for a December Fed hike and two further increases next year," ING analysts explain.
In the UK, market expectations for the next rate rise have slipped back since the Bank of England’s ‘cautious hike’ last week, and when Governor Carney speaks next week, investors will be listening for signs that he’s trying to ‘talk the market back’. We suspect he won’t. There’s a lot that can happen between now and February, particularly on the Brexit front, and the Bank will want to keep its cards close to its chest on future tightening.
The data over the next week may not galvanise markets into pricing in an earlier BoE hike either. Inflation is set to hit a peak, before tailing off over coming months. Signs of underlying price pressures – chiefly wage growth - are still relatively benign. And finally, October was a tricky month for retailers, which is likely to be reflected in subdued consumer spending figures.
A big line up of ECB speakers this week, but after the big tapering decision last month, nothing too spectacular is to be expected. Next Thursday will be GDP day in the Eurozone. German growth should remain strong but without any signs of overheating.
In Sweden inflation figures will be closely watched in advance of December’s Riksbank meeting, where the central bank will decide whether to extend QE further.
In Norway, Q3 GDP figures are likely to show that the recovery from the oil price shock is continuing.