EUR/USD: seasonal trends favoring the greenback? - Scotiabank
Analysts at Scotiabank explained that EUR/USD is trading modestly firmer in what looks like a technically driven trading as there is little or no fundamental news evident to support the bounce from the mid-1.15 low seen yesterday.
"France reported a wider trade and C/A deficit earlier while Eurozone/US short-term spreads remain at historic highs (negative for EUR)."
"Cross-currency basis swap spreads are also the widest since Jan (-46bps), reflecting rising demand for USD funding."
"We remain fundamentally constructive on the EUR in the longer run and believe that a lot of good news is priced into the USD in the short run."
"We note seasonal trends typically favour the USD around this time of the year, however."