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Quick view on EMEA FX – TDS

Researchers at TD Securities have assessed the ongoing scenario in the EMEA FX space.

Key Quotes

“Turkish growth has picked up strongly, in part due to govt. measures, but inflation in double digits. In S. Africa economy remains weak and inflation within target range - November ratings reviews could result in downgrades. Strong growth in Poland, but conflict with EU a source of noise. Hungary growth respectable, but wage growth very high. Russian economy is recovering and inflation has fallen below 4% target”.

“Weak lira means CBRT will keep policy on hold for some time, with easing starting in early Q2 2018 as inflation and growth start to ease off. S. Africa in a modest easing cycle, but we will have to wait to next year for the next cut. Poland to start slowly hiking next year. Hungary CB maintaining dovish stance, but will be forced to start hiking next year. CBR to keep cautiously easing rates into H1 of next year”.

“In spite of strong growth and high nominal rates further lira weakness likely given abundant political risks. Possible downgrade in Nov is a key near-term risk to ZAR, but it could rally on Zuma’s replacement. EU disputes may weigh on PLN, but Polish growth is supportive. NBH keeping policy loose and will fight HUF strength vs EUR. Positive on RUB given our bullish oil view and high real rates, but look for weakness to go long”.

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