China mainland growth steady for now - SocGen
China’s economic data in the week ahead is likely to show a highly diverse picture, but this is almost entirely due to short-term volatility, according to analysts at Societe Generale.
“Foreign trade data from China are expected to indicate stronger export growth in a reversal of underperformance relative to regional peers in the previous two months, but import growth is likely to have slowed from very elevated rates.”
“In contrast, Taiwan’s export and import growth is likely to have come back to trend after an impressive spike in September, with only a small decline in the surplus from the all-time high. Similarly for inflation: we expect China’s CPI to have firmed 0.2pp on food price strength, whereas CPI inflation in Taiwan is likely to have plunged on weak food prices. Arguably more important will be China’s credit data where a further slowdown would foreshadow slower growth down the road.”