UK nearing a deal on the first phase of Brexit talks - SocGen
Brexit negotiations will resume on 9-10 November after a long pause and analysts at Societe Generale expect to see some positive news out of this round of talks.
“Indeed, a deal on the first phase of Article 50 negotiations (EU citizens’ rights in the UK, the Irish border and the divorce bill) seems within reach by the end of this monthly round of talks (though the divorce bill will likely be tricky). On top of that, an informal agreement on a transitional period may be on the cards. Indeed, while the 19-20 October EU Council confirmed the lack of sufficient progress on Brexit negotiations, the tone of the meeting – especially after PM Theresa May’s Florence speech – was encouraging. The EU leaders appeared hopeful that a deal on the first phase of Article 50 negotiations could be reached by the 14-15 December Council meeting, which would pave the way for the start of negotiations on the future relationship between the UK and EU.”
“The second phase could then start straight away. However, as the deal has to be ratified by all 27 remaining EU countries, the aim is to have it done at the latest by autumn 2018. Nine to ten months is an incredibly short period of time to hammer out an agreement on such a complex range of issues, which makes clear the need for a transitional deal during which the details of the new trading relationship can be hammered out. We continue to see a hard Brexit as the most likely scenario, given that the two major UK parties (Conservative and Labour) are in favour of immigration control, which would automatically end the access to the Single Market.”