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NZD/USD: 21-D SMA at 0.6999 is the key target ahead of 0.7054

  • NZD/USD higher on NZ finance Minister.
  • DXY dropped 0.3% overnight while US 10-year yields dropped 0.2%.
  • Commodities performing, with iron ore leading the metals higher. 
  • Next catalysts come with the RBA, China's Oct trade data and The milk auction on Tues in NY.

NZD/USD has been sent higher as comments from NZ's Finance Minister hit the wires, extending the rally from 0.6875 breaking 0.6950 previous double top highs. The bird was lifted overnight and tallying up over 69 cents vs the greenback that was down by 0.3% by the close of NY's session.

NZ's Finance Minister Robertson: no desire to have NZD included in the RBNZ review

US rates in the 10 years were also down 0.2%, offering the bird a buffer on the downside corrections. Commodity prices have stabilised and the metals are performing well, dragged up by iron ore. The next catalysts come with the RBA & China's Oct trade data. The milk auction on Tues in NY is an aditional risk ahead.

"However, markets are unlikely to push things too far ahead of the RBNZ’s decision on Thursday, where we expect a cautious message to be retained," argued analysts at ANZ.

Analysts at Westpac's outlook:

NZD/USD 1 day: 

Consolidating in a 0.6820-0.6950 range, with risks skewed to the downside.

NZD/USD 1-3 month:  

If the RBNZ remains firmly on hold, as we expect, and the US dollar rises on delivery of a Fed interest rate rise in December, then NZD/USD should fall to 0.67 by year-end.

NZD/USD levels

There is a bullish bias with the 10-Day SMA as a support line at 0.6898 with the long lower wick on day candle & RSIs biased up. The 200 hourly SMA and 0.6882 is a downside level that could come in as a support on a reversal of the 0.6875 rally, just below the 10-D SMA at 0.6894 also aligning with the 200-Month SMA as well. On the upside, the 21-D SMA at 0.6999 is the key target ahead of 0.7054.

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