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AUD/NZD: what's the outlook? - Westpac

Analysts at Westpac offered their outlook for today's price action for the antipodean cross and rates ahead of the RBA.

Key Quotes:

"AUD/NZD 1 day: This downward correction could run as far as 1.1025 (Oct highs) if the AUD remains unfavoured. The RBA today poses major event risk.

AUD/NZD 1-3 month: A resumption of the trend rise which started in June should test 1.13, contingent on AU economic data remaining supportive, commodity prices recovering, risk sentiment remaining elevated, and NZ politics weighing on the NZD. (25 Oct)

AU swap yields 1 day: The 3yr should open around 2.02%, the 10yr around 2.79%.

AU swap yields 1-3 month: Our RBA outlook (on hold throughout 2018) is anchoring short-maturity interest rates and should keep 3yr swap rates in a 1.80% to 2.30% range, as long as core inflation remains below 2%. Longer maturity rates will largely follow US rates. (4 Oct).

NZ swap yields 1 day: NZ 2yr swap rates should open unchanged at 2.16%, the 10yr down 1bp at 3.09%, in response to AU and US interest rates movement overnight.

NZ swap yields 1-3 month: Our RBNZ outlook (on hold throughout 2018) is anchoring short-maturity interest rates and should keep 2yr swap rates in a 2.10% to 2.50% range, as long as inflation remains below 2%.  Longer maturity rates will largely follow US rates. (4 Oct)"

 

 

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