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Forex Flash: What can we expect of EUR/USD? – UBS and Commerzbank

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The single currency is posting meagre gains on Tuesday, trading around 1.2855/60 after Monday’s lows in the vicinity of 1.2830
Cyprus remains in centre stage on Tuesday, with finance minister M.Sarris expected to address the next measures regarding capital control.

G.Yu and G.Berry, Strategists at the Swiss lender UBS, confirm the bearish outlook on the cross, arguing, “With the momentum crossing lower again and trending indicators bearish, look for a break under 1.2736 and expose 1.2662. Resistance is at 1.3048”.

In addition, and after the post-deal rally of the euro on Monday, Karen Jones – Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank – suggested, “The Elliott wave count on the daily chart is indicating a possible 1.3100/80 rebound before we head lower, but our propensity is to sell ahead of here… Still longer term we target the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2400 and then 1.2042, the 2012 low”.

Forex Flash: Expect US Durable Goods at 4.0% and consumer confidence at 71.0 – TD Securities

A practically empty economic calendar in Europe will give way to a load of data in the US, including Durable Goods Orders, S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales. “The tapes will be busy today: for durable goods we expect a 4.0% increase and 1.0% rise ex-transport, but a 1.0% fall in core. Then US S&P/CS Index we see a below consensus 0.70% m/m increase in January; Richmond Fed Index is expected to slip to 5.0 in March; Consumer confidence we expect an above-market increase to 71.0 in March. Finally US New Home sales we forecast a below consensus 8.5% drop to 410K in February.
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Eurogroup head’s statement on Cyprus dampened investors’ confidence on Monday

Following Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem’s comments on Monday, suggesting that the bailout deal struck between Cyprus and the Troika might be a model for rescue programs for other EU countries in the future, caused the European stock markets to drop sharply in late trading.
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