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NZD/USD: anchored to 0.6900, looking for direction from key data this week

  • NZD/USD awaits market moving data for direction.
  • NZD/USD turning bearish?
  • RBNZ to be a non event?

After a choppy NY closing session, having started out in Asia with a test of 0.69 the figure, the bird has picked up a bid to 0.6916 the high. We have Inflation expectations from the RBNZ today as a second tier data release. 

Key events ahead for the week - Nomura

Other domestic data ahead this week will be GDT Price Index, the RBNZ Interest Rate Decision and electron card sales. NZD/USD is in the consolidation of the minor recovery of the 0.72 supply down to 0.6818 26th Oct low. The recent double top highs are around 0.6950 (ost NFP high) and the price is caught between here and 0.6840. 

Nonfarm payrolls triggers dollar to rally - Westpac

In respect to the RBNZ this week, no change is expected and it is unlikely that there would be any changes to the familar. "“Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period. Numerous uncertainties remain and policy may need to adjust accordingly," from the MPC statement. Instead, traders are likely to tun to the Chinese Oct trade balance and the Fonterra milk auction (GDT price index) as the early-week risks for the bird.

NZD/USD 1-3 month: 

On a wider outlook, the analysts at Westpac suggest that if the RBNZ remains firmly on hold, as they expect, and the US dollar rises on a delivery of a Fed interest rate rise in December, then NZD/USD should fall to 0.67 by year-end.

NZD/USD levels

 There is a bearish bias with RSI diverges at a new high with a long upper wick on the daily sticks. However, the price still holds above the 200 hourly SMA and 0.6880 and looks supported there while trading above the 10-D SMA at 0.6892. This aligns with the & 200-Month SMA as well.  The 23rd Oct is next upside target at 0.6992 while 0.6820 is the recent low for the guarding the YTD ow of 0.6816. 

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