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Forex Flash: Cyprus situation an interesting turn – Deutsche Bank

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Recent reports suggest that the Cypriot government is tabling legislation, which will restructure Popular Bank and impose transaction restrictions across the country's banking system. The core part of the government's bank resolution proposal is a splitting of Popular Bank into a good and bad bank.

Deposits under €100K will be transferred to the good bank and larger deposits will be folded into the latter – other banks would be recapitalized. According to Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank, “The draft legislation also seeks to restrict noncash transactions, curtail check cashing, limit withdrawals and convert checking accounts into fixed-term deposits when banks eventually reopen.”

According to the deputy leader of the ruling Democratic Rally party, the plan would reduce the banking sector's funding requirements to €3.5B (from €5.8B) and 361,000 depositors out of 379,000 will "get 100% of their deposits guaranteed". It's unclear how the remaining funding gap will be met - media reports suggest some combination of using state assets as collateral and the use of pension fund assets. Finance Minister Sarris confirmed early this morning that Cyprus did not receive financial assistance requested from Russia, but the terms of Russia's existing loan may be revised.

Forex Flash: Muddling through emerges as the central scenario for Cyprus – Merrill Lynch

After difficult negotiations in Cyprus talks of a euro exit have resurfaced, but Merrill Lynch analysts see it as much less likely than a muddling through scenario: “Our central scenario is that of muddling through, with a painful deal being reached by the Troika, Cyprus and the possible participation of Russia”, wrote analyst Laurence Boone, adding that this would include some private sector participation as well as indirect but lasting consequences for other periphery countries, “because the discussions would be likely to increase fragmentation again”. “Under that scenario, we would expect policy makers to focus on options to support credit in the South to overcome the renewed fragmentation impact”, he added.
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Forex Flash: USD/CAD more bullish in the near-term – TD Securities

FX moves have been relatively mild, suggesting caution rather than concern among investors and the view that contagion from Cyprus can be contained, according to TD Securities analysts. In regard to the CAD, the budget news from Ottawa yesterday did not add any additional information to the CAD picture but did reaffirm Canada’s solid AAA credentials in a world where that is an increasingly rare attribute. “The underly-ing picture of slow domestic growth at present remains, however, and we rather think that the CAD is liable to softens modestly versus the USD in the near-to-medium term as a result”, wrote analysts Shaun Osborne and Greg Moore, a bit more bullish on the hourly/6-hourly charts. “Potential inverse H&S continuation pat-tern, with good support emerging this week on the dip to retracement support at 1.0180/85”, they added, pointing to more upside momentum above 1.0275/80.
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