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Forex Flash: Below-trend annual growth of 2.0% expected in US for 2013 – Goldman Sachs

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - According to the Economics Research Team at Goldman Sachs, “We expect below-trend annual growth of 2.0% in the United States in 2013 and acceleration to 2.9% in 2014. Growth should then remain slightly above that rate in 2015 and 2016. On an annualized sequential basis, we expect a rebound to 2.9% in 2013Q1 and a slowdown to 2% in 2013Q2 and Q3, before a pick-up to 2.5% in the last quarter of the year. Looking into 2014 and beyond, we expect above-trend growth at around 3%-3.5%.”

Our forecast for near-term weakness, but long-term strength is based on competing impulses from the private and public sectors. In Q2 and Q3, we expect the frontloaded ‘sequester’ to be a significant drag on growth, while in the intermediate and long term we see further strength in the private sector, led by the ongoing housing recovery, rising business investment and financial rebalancing in the household sector.

Forex: EUR/USD threatening 1.2900

The bloc currency is hovering over the key support of 1.2900 at the end of the NA session on Thursday, heading south as there was no progress from the last meeting of political leaders in Cyprus....
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Forex Flash: Eurozone to contract by -0.5% in 2013 – Goldman Sachs

“For the Euro area as a whole, we expect a continued contraction, by -0.5% in 2013, before a return to positive growth of 0.8% in 2014. Our baseline is still that the Euro area will ‘muddle through’ but remain intact. Cross-country divergence remains a key theme in this baseline scenario, however, with economic weakness especially pronounced in Spain and Italy. Meanwhile, we see growth decelerating only marginally in Germany in 2013, and forecast some overheating in the subsequent years.” notes the Economics Research Team at Goldman Sachs.
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