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Forex Flash: EUR/USD downside target at 1.2679/61 – Comerzbank

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The EUR/USD fell through the 200 day moving average at 1.2876 to 1.2844 yesterday, but it is still to reach the Commerzbank downside target of 1.2679/61 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July-to-January rise and the November 2012 low). “Longer term we target the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2400 and then 1.2042, the 2012 low”, wrote analyst Karen Jones.

“Should a, for today unlikely, break above Tuesday’s high at 1.2970 be seen, though, the 1.3000 mark should be retested”, she continued, pointing then to 1.3046 as target, where it should cap along with the next higher 1.3107 Friday high on a daily New York closing basis. “While this is the case we will retain our medium term bearish forecast”, Jones concluded.

Forex Flash: What to expect from the UK Budget and BoE minutes – TD Securities

Today’s MPC minutes will tell us how the BoE decision went, with TD Securities analysts betting it was another close call as data was mostly on the weak side heading into the meeting. “We think that we’ll see a 6-3 or possibly even 5-4 vote, with Governor King continuing to favor further QE”, wrote analyst Alvin Pontoh, adding that gilts might rally with suggestions that members would have considered voting for an extension if it wasn’t for the reinvestment from the matured 4H13.
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Fed Preview: No QE exit before the end of 2013 - Luciano Jannelli

No change in the Fed's monetary policy is expected in March, as the situation in the US still remains uncertain: the recent NFP gains, although decent, do not reflect a steady improvement on the US labor market and the full impact of the sequester on the economy has not become apparent yet.
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