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Forex Flash: USD and EUR against the CAD – TD Securities

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Broader trend dynamics are still fairly week and short-term scenario favors range-trading rather than a bullish break out, according to TD Securities analysts. “We cannot exclude a push through 1.0265 near-term but we would still rather look to buy dips—to the low 1.02 area—than chase this market higher”, wrote analysts Shaun Osborne and Greg Moore, pointing to still positive broader trend but the USD may struggle to make fresh ground. “At the same time, we think the 1.0175/85 area is fast devel-oping into the key short-term support zone for USD/CAD”, they added.

In regard to the EUR/CAD, the broader tone looks consolidative after the cross finding support in the upper 1.31. “Still, there is no getting round the fact that the market has leaked steadily lower since the early February peak and that some of the longer-term price signals are now starting to look more negative for the EUR”, wrote the TD Securities analysts, suggesting that the rally in the cross is at risk of stalling and turning down. “Price action has been weak enough to persuade short-term accounts already that selling rallies is the way to go, we think”, and they continued. “That sets a very high bar for the EUR to improve from here—safe ground is well above 1.35 at the moment, for example—and suggests losses will accelerate below 1.3185 (December high pivot)”.

Forex Flash: Europe unlikely to unravel on Cyprus – Deutsche Bank

The Cyprus situation still stands in systemic terms – a slow burner of an issue more than an immediate macro shock but not one to be under-estimated in importance medium-term. According to Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank, “For now assuming the proposal gets passed (the votes are seemingly not yet there) and even better watered down with small depositors bearing less or even none of the levy, Europe will likely only see small short-term collateral damage.”
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Forex Flash: EUR/AUD downside held by ECB backstop – Westpac

The return of genuine political concerns in the Eurozone should continue to chip away at the EUR/USD multiweek while the AUD/USD trades broad ranges, leaving EUR/AUD biased to further decline near term. “1.2350 is the next target for the EUR/AUD, but Novembers 1.2200 lows are probably just out of reach so long as Australia’s domestic outlook is soft enough to keep the RBA warning of further monetary easing. The ECBs bond market backstop plan also argues against substantial further EUR/AUD decline.” Notes Sean Callow, a Global FX Strategist at Westpac.
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