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Forex Flash: All market themes point to US Dollar strength - Societe Generale

According to Sebastien Galy, the FX markets are now under the influence of a three themes: "the American economic revival, diverging monetary policy expectations and the (unfinished) euro area (EA) crisis."

Sebastien notes: "Those themes all point in the same direction: a stronger dollar. Dollar strength is now far less dependent on risk conditions; the US economic outperformance and the fears of a not-too-distant Fed exit imply that the dollar is no longer a funding currency of choice in the carry trade. The exit debate will heat up in H2."

"For now, we fear that another EA shockwave will hit the euro, as dysfunctional politics and procrastination over reform resurface.
The UK Minutes and BoE Minutes will keep cable heavy too, this week and beyond. The yen sell-off may slow as risk conditions become murkier, but the early-April BoJ meeting still supports a higher USD/JPY" he adds.

Forex Flash: Australian jobs may partly reflect sampling error - NAB

Despite Australia’s upbeat jobs figures, largest monthly increase since July 2000, the NAB team notes that "other indicators of labour demand, including job vacancies and our own NAB employment series, the rise may at least partly reflect sampling error; we still expect unemployment, steady at 5.4% to rise ahead."
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Forex Flash: Still expecting USD/JPY at 80.00 year end - HSBC

According to HSBS, the Yen deppreciation story has now completed the promises phase, "but March marks the transition to the action phase, and already the going is proving tougher for USD-JPY bulls" they say.
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