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Forex Flash: RBNZ rates hold as dovishness prevails – UBS

The AUD/NZD was jolted over two big figures higher overnight after the RBNZ took a step towards the dovish end of the spectrum. More significantly though, there was a pronounced rhetorical escalation against currency strength. Governor Wheeler noted rates would likely hold current levels until year end, but warned that the kiwi is over 10-15% overvalued and he said that scope for an interest rate cut would increase if the currency strengthens further.

He went on to say that the kiwi is likely to fall at some point, and when the declines come, it could be quite abrupt. Australia's employment report then registered a 71k gain in the numbers employed - the greatest monthly increase in 13 years. Nonetheless, “our economists maintain their non-consensus views for unchanged RBA ahead, while RBNZ tightening may yet commence in September.” notes Research Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS.

Forex Flash: EUR/USD aims at 1.2913, 1.2885/76 and 200-day MA at 1.2867 - Commerzbank

Commerzbank analysts see the EUR/USD on course for 1.2913, 1.2885/76 (the 55 week ma, 7th December low and 78.6% retracement), which is in close proximity to the 200 day ma at 1.2867 “and we suspect that we will see this zone hold the initial test.
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Forex: EUR/USD apathetic after Spanish sales

The shared currency remained indifferent after the 10.2% annual contraction of the retail sales in Spain, missing estimates at -8.3% albeit bettering December’s -11.4%. The euro kept unmoved around...
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