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Forex Flash: EUR/USD aims at 1.2913, 1.2885/76 and 200-day MA at 1.2867 - Commerzbank

Commerzbank analysts see the EUR/USD on course for 1.2913, 1.2885/76 (the 55 week ma, 7th December low and 78.6% retracement), which is in close proximity to the 200 day ma at 1.2867 “and we suspect that we will see this zone hold the initial test.

“Rallies will find a fairly solid band of resistance above 1.3093 to 1.3135 – this is the location of the accelerated downtrend, a Fibonacci retracement and the 8th March high”, wrote analyst Karen Jones, targeting 1.2679/61 (61.8% retracement of the move up from July 2012 and the November 2012 low) for the short term, while 1.2400 then 1.2050/42 the 2012 low are targeted for the longer term.

Spain: Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan): -10.2% vs -10.7% (Dec)

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Forex Flash: RBNZ rates hold as dovishness prevails – UBS

The AUD/NZD was jolted over two big figures higher overnight after the RBNZ took a step towards the dovish end of the spectrum. More significantly though, there was a pronounced rhetorical escalation against currency strength. Governor Wheeler noted rates would likely hold current levels until year end, but warned that the kiwi is over 10-15% overvalued and he said that scope for an interest rate cut would increase if the currency strengthens further.
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