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Forex Flash: Market fails to take pre-emptive plunge ahead of RBNZ – UBS

Although the recent news flow continues to point to the need for somewhat tighter conditions in New Zealand, it appears that the market is unwilling to take the plunge on pre-emptive RBNZ moves. Indeed, corporates and hedge funds have been adding to shorts in recent weeks. Clearly, the need to reconcile tighter conditions with 'overvalued' currency has resulted in a hesitant RBNZ, and deterring potential longs in the meantime.

However, “if the RBNZ does start changing its rhetoric again and focus solely on the need for monetary adjustment irrespective of the NZD, we doubt current shorts will be able to hold for long.” adds Research Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS.

Forex Flash: USD/CHF may retrace to 0.9396 and 0.9350 ahead of more gains - Commerzbank

Commerzbank analysts note that the Elliott wave count suggests a retracement to 0.9396, 0.9350 ahead of the next leg up, but the USD/CHF only did a tiny retrace yet. “This has not even made the initial retracement of the last leg up (which lies at 0.9427)”, wrote analyst Karen Jones, pointing then to the 200 day ma at 0.9422 and the very accelerated uptrend at 0.9420, while nearby support is offered by the 0.93895 January high and the 0.9317 6 week uptrend.
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