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Forex: AUD/USD at highs above 1.0300

The AUD/USD is having upside pressure as, according to TD Securities analysts, “bond yields from the June-2016 maturity onwards closed above the 3% cash rate prompting the “conclusion” that the RBA easing cycle is over”. The current rally of Gold (+1.11%) to just below $1600 may also be having an effect on the cross. The AUD/USD is again at its early highs, 1.0313, after bouncing from 1.0268 low throughout the European morning.

Australia's Business Confidence fell to 0.7 from January’s 3.1, according to NAB. “Confidence was negative in October and November last year then turned positive in December as the world looked a better place and following RBA rate cuts”, wrote Rabobank analyst Adrien Foster, pointing to negative business conditions, down to -2.7 from January’s -1.8. “This has been negative for 11 months now and reflects the challenge for the economy in pivoting away from the mining sector as the end of the boom approaches against the backdrop of the high currency”, he added.

UBS analysts are neutral and point to resistance at 1.0300: “Only a closing break above would extend the recovery to 1.0414. Support is at 1.0202 ahead of 1.0103”, wrote analyst Gareth Berry.

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