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Forex: USD/JPY at lows around 96.33/38

After an early up move to 96.72 high on improving consumer confidence in Japan, the USD/JPY then retraced those gains, finding resistance at 96.33/38. The pair remains subdued at that area, but threatens more losses.

Japan's consumer confidence rose from 43.3 to 44.3 in February. The BSI Large All Industry survey improved to 1.0 in 1Q from -5.5 in 4Q 2012, while the Large Manufacturing survey improved from -10.3 to -4.6. “These point to a bit of an improvement coming through in the real economy early this year”, wrote Rabobank analyst Adrien Foster. “It’s interesting that Manufacturing is weaker than the All Industry index and this points to the services sector doing better overall. The weaker yen would boost manufacturing more through its export focus”, Foster added.

“We believe that the market has resumed its bull move", wrote Commerzbank analyst Karen Jones, pointing to scope to 99.70 (50% retracement of the 2007 to 2011 drop) and then 101.40/67 (the 2000 and 2005 lows), while expecting correction to 95.85/25, ahead of further gains.

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The EUR/GBP broke higher Tuesday, ascending to 0.8753 during overnight trading (session high) before taking an eventual downturn. Since the, the cross has plummeted, over 25 pips, moving into negative territory and establishing fresh lows at 0.8724/25 in these moments.
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