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Forex Flash: Sell AUD/NZD rallies on RBA/RBNZ risks - UBS

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on March 13, and according to UBS economics, "the official
cash interest rate is set to remain unchanged at 2.5%, with the key areas of interest in the statement will be discussion of
the 'over-valued' NZ dollar and house price inflation/household credit that the central bank is 'watching closely'" they say. The bank still expects the next move "as being a hike for the RBNZ" UBS notes.

UBS adds: "In contrast, the RBA in its latest meeting kept interest rates at 3.0% while retaining an easing bias. In its statement the RBA suggested the labour market was 'softening somewhat'. This is likely to be in response to Australia's great mining capex boom peaking. As a result investors should watch February's employment report in the week ahead to see if the jobless rate starts to trend higher from its current historically low level of 5.4%."

The bank suggests that "given the balance of these risks, we prefer to be sellers of AUDNZD rallies."

Forex Flash: AUD/USD 1.0340/75 key zone to move higher - JPM

Following a positive start in Shanghai, AUD/USD has printed fresh 2-week highs at 1.0313 running some stops, though now retraces off those highs last at 1.0286 as Shanghai turns into the negative, down -0.75% at this point, near session lows.
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Forex: GBP/USD below 1.49 ahead of key UK data

Cable is down at fresh session lows 1.4891 from NY session highs printed at 1.4933, few pips below previous London and weekly highs at 1.4944. Pound is the third weakest major currency since March started, only above Yen, the weakest of all by far, and in a close match with Swiss franc. The pair is still above yesterday's lows at 1.4865, the lowest seen since June 2010. For the London session ahead UK Manufacturing production for January on monthly basis at 09:30 GMT will be key risk event of the day, along with UK Trade balance and Industrial production at same hour.
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