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Forex Flash: China: Exports Up Imports Down - Nomura

Nomura Zhiwei Zhang notes that Chinese exports rose by 21.8% y-o-y in February (Consensus: 8.1%;), despite the unfavorable base effect, namely the lunar new year fell in February this year but January last year.

He feels that this is inconsistent with weak exports from Korea (-8.6% y-o-y) and Taiwan (-15.8%) in February, and the weak new export orders index in recent China PMI readings. He believes the surprise may be down to capital inflows disguised as trade flows, where exporters may overstate their exports and understate their imports to move capital into China, circumventing capital controls. Further, he adds that Import growth was surprisingly low, at -15.2% (Consensus: -8.5%). and the overall trade surplus fell to USD15bn (Consensus: USD6.9bn).

Euro looks to Payrolls for extra boost

Although the single currency is now trading in the red, it still keeps the area of 1.3095/1.3100, a tad lower than yesterday’s highs, when positive comments from the ECB’s Mario Draghi lifted the EUR/USD to...
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Forex Flash: EUR/USD looks bullish ahead - BTMU

Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ analysts note that the Euro has declined steadily against the dollar from the intraday high of 1.3711 set of February 1st.
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