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Forex Flash: USD/JPY set to challenge the March 2008 spike low at 95.77 - Commerzbank

After seeing the USD/JPY taking out 94.77, Commerzbank analysts see the USD/JPY set to challenge both the March 2008 spike low at 95.77 and the TD resistance at 95.62. “These will need to be cleared to confirm another leg higher is underway to 99.70 (50% retracement of the 2007 to 2011 drop) and then 101.40/67 (the 2000 and 2005 lows)”, wrote analyst Karen Jones, expecting the time zone gap to 95.10 of this morning to be filled ahead of further gains (gap between where market went overnight and where London left it).

“Failure is likely to lead to further ranging, however with the market under pinned by the 91.44 4 month uptrend, a bullish bias is entrenched”, she added, pointing to initial support at 93.70/92.60 and an immediately bid market while above it.

Forex Flash: Few factors standing in way of USD growth status – UBS

Many longer-term participants in the FX markets have started to express satisfaction of late that after many years of frustration, the USD/JPY is finally starting to move, or the BoJ/Japanese government is getting its act together. “While valid, this view perhaps gives too much credit to the Japanese drivers, while the dollar side of the argument is often overlooked.” writes Research Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS.
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