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Forex Flash: US payroll data unlikely to yield over 200k via technical terms – UBS

Aside from the global central bank decisions, US data was of particular interest throughout the week, all building up to Friday's payrolls print. The employment components of the key purchasing managers' reports for February have all been released and in general the high levels held well - e.g. non-manufacturing ISM registered 57.2 for this sub-component.

According to Research Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS, “The problem is, markets are looking at labor markets in second-derivative terms, and perception may remain that levels merely 'holding' (even at high levels) will not be enough to expect a print well beyond 200k.” The consensus for Nonfarm payrolls in the month of February sits at just 160K.

Forex Flash: The Euro´s new regime - Nomura

Nomura strategists note that this week was focused on central banks, including the ECB which held rates. However, the see that in terms of price action, USD was the strongest performer in the G10 and EM and equities were higher.
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Forex Flash: EUR/USD starts to bounce, directly offered below 1.3178 - Commerzbank

The EUR/USD is bouncing higher “and while we would allow for this to extend further, both cloud resistance on the 240 minute chart (up to 1.3200) and the accelerated downtrend at 1.3178 are expected to cap the topside and the market will remain directly offered while capped here”, wrote analyst Karen Jones, pointing to initial support at 1.2885/76 (7th December low and 78.6% retracement). “We have a short term downside target to 1.2679/61, this is the 61.8% retracement of the move up from July 2012 and the November 2012 low”; she added, targeting 1.2400 then 1.2050/42 (2012 low) on the longer term.
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