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Forex Flash: Government shutdowns - Nomura

Aichi Amemiya, economist at Nomura note that while Government shutdowns may have limited economic effect but is politically dangerous.

He starts by noting that the current authorisation, or “continuing resolution” for most discretionary government spending is scheduled to expire on 27th March. If this authority is not extended, non-essential government activities will shut down thereafter. He expects an agreement to be reached before the deadline to avoid a shutdown. Nevertheless he writes, “the risk of a government shutdown is great enough to justify analysis. Although we would expect the economic impact of a government shutdown to be modest, the potential political fallout is big enough to drive both sides to reach an agreement.”

Forex Flash: No surprises at the BoJ - Societe Generale

Kit Juckes, Global head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale notes that there was no surprise and no change from the BOJ last night.
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Forex Flash: ECB's Draghi to reinforce the overall further shift toward a rate cut – TD Securities

TD Securities analysts believe the ECB has seen enough to increase its dovishness, “but not enough to cut yet (although we do put odds of a refi rate cut at 30-40%, which is more than is priced into the market)”. TD Securities analysts expect today's statement to include downgrades to growth both this year and next and inflation this year could be flat or slightly lower, but the key 2014 inflation forecast will likely be little changed.
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