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12. Forex Flash: Chavez’s death will not yield immediate effect in Venezuelan sovereign ratings – Deutsche Bank

It was announced that Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez had passed away overnight after a battle with cancer. Vice President Maduro will serve as interim president until the next election, which must be held within 30 days. According to Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank, “In a national address in December last year, Chavez reportedly called on Venezuelans to unite behind Maduro as his successor.”

In terms of the market reaction, Venezuela’s 5yr CDS were marked several basis points wider as were the yields on the country’s 2027 bonds – although confirmation of Chavez's passing first hit the wires after most US markets had closed. According to Moody's, the death of Hugo Chavez will not have an immediate effect on Venezuela's sovereign rating but the political transition will be key to any possible rating changes.

Forex: EUR/USD lower on the day, waiting for US employment data

The EUR/USD peaked during the Asian session, but blocked by 1.3070 area the EUR/USD fell during European time and found its low at 1.3024. As of writing, the market trades around 1.3040, still below the opening price.
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Forex Flash: Gilts reach support at 116.54 – RBS

According to Technical Markets Strategist Dmytro Bondar at RBS, “Gilts have reached a key support level of 116.54 after forming a Tweezer top pattern. The level is likely to determine how much downside will be before turning constructive again. If broken, the price could dip to 116.11 or even 115.75. In the long-term, a pennant on a daily chart suggests there would be good chances of extending the rally to 118.37 onto 119.00. These are Fibonacci levels on a weekly continuation chart, while the caveat would be a sustained break below 116.54.”
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