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Forex: AUD/NZD awaits RBA above 1.2300

AUD/NZD is still feeling some selling pressure as it trades at 1.2333 asks, off recent fresh weekly lows at 1.2308, down -0.32% for the week, mostly on stronger Kiwi than Aussie, or perhaps better said Kiwi not as weak as Aussie, though NZD/USD is still higher for the week, while AUD/USD is back to negative. NZD/USD bounced yesterday from fresh 2013 lows at 0.8192, last at 0.8270, while AUD/USD is last at 1.0197, off fresh weekly highs at 1.0220 following better than expected Aus retail sales and current account deficit.

Now focus shifts to RBA rate statement at 03:30 GMT, while HSBC PMI China has showed a weak figure, which, as CA-CIB notes, cited by FT reporter Denise Law ‏in her Twitter account, fall in HSBC services PMI "should be taken seriously" and "confirms outlook for Chinese GDP growth slowdown." For the coming RBA meeting consensus is for a pause in rate cuts, though statement can show some dovishness hints. AUD/NZD is down -1.78% year to date, but for Richard Sexton at IFR Markets is a buying opportunity, and believes there is “more upside to come,” and that “Feb low should hold,” the analyst said.

Immediate support to the downside for AUD/NZD lies at recent session/weekly lows 1.2308, followed by Feb 21/25 lows at 1.2260, and Feb 18 highs at 1.2224. To the upside, closest resistance shows at yesterday's NY session highs 1.2360, followed by Monday's weekly highs at 1.2396, and Feb 26 highs at 1.2435.

Forex Flash: NZ-US interest rate differentials consistent with a NZD/USD around 0.8400 – BNZ

According to Currency Strategist at BNZ Mike Jones, latest NZD/USD down move “ran out of puff” yesterday, stalling around the 0.8190 and bouncing till recent fresh weekly high at 0.8284, last at 0.8268.
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