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Forex Flash: What lies ahead of EUR/USD? – Commerzbank, UBS and Westpac

The single currency continues to trade in the vicinity of 1.3000/15 on Monday, ahead of a measure of the investor’s confidence in the euro area by the Sentix index.

Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, believes the correction higher has ended at 1.3163, with the market then dipped to fresh year lows. “We note the 13 count on the 240 minute chart, however at this stage consider that while rallies are contained by the accelerated downtrend at 1.3263, the market will remain directly offered”, adds the expert.

G.Yu and G.Berry, Strategists at UBS are now bearish on the cross from neutral, commenting, “A closing break below 1.2998 would be an important bearish development, exposing 1.2877. Resistance is at 1.3162”.

“Italy’s lack of a government adds to the weight on the euro from disappointing data which will mean Draghi can no longer dismiss rate cut talk. Risks to 1.27/1.28 multi-week”, suggested Sean Callow, Strategist at Westpac.

Forex: EUR/GBP pressured ahead of UK PMI Construction

The EUR/GBP is being pressured to the downside as the British currency gets stronger ahead of the UK PMI Construction. The cross has reached as low as 0.8643 on the London opening. The UK data is expected to improve slightly from 48.7 to 49.0 in February. "What will be much more important though is tomorrow’s services PMI, which we think could be the make-or-break factor for whether the BoE extends QE on Thursday", wrote TD Securities analyst Alvin Pontoh.
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Forex Flash: EUR/JPY damaged and aiming at 117.29 then 114.07 - Commerzbank

Commerzbank analysts agree that the recent sell off was damaging and would allow for an extension of losses to 117.29 then 114.07 (38.2% and 50% retracements of the move up from November) while a slight rebound from the 55-day MA (at 119.62) remains plausible.
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