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Forex Flash: Holding the 1.28/29 area is vital in sustaining a longer-term bull outlook - TD Securities

"No great surprise that the short-term bear trend in EUR/USD extended further this week," pointed TD Securities FX analysts Shaun Osborne and Greg Moore. With the EUR/USD bottoming at 1.2965 during Friday's American session, the pair has completed a 745 pips decline from February 1st.

However, according to to TDS analysts, there is still hope for Euro bulls as the pair remains above the 1.28/29 area. "Four weeks of successive losses keeps the EUR on track to test the 1.28/1.29 area (40-week/200-day MA/neckline of
the huge, multi-month inverse H&S neckline that drove our late 2012/early 2013 bullishness on the EUR)."

"Holding this support zone (we can tolerate some temporary weakness below) is vital in sustaining a longer-term bull outlook," state both analysts.

On the upside, "back through 1.3330/40 eases bear pressure," points Osborne and Moore, "we can only get bullish at this stage if spot regains 1.36s-plus. Look to sell rallies to the 1.3250 area."

Forex Flash: ECB to leave refi rate unchanged - UBS

Expectations, it will be the word in the coming week when the RBA, BoC, ECB, BoE, and BoJ are expected to hold policy meetings. In the case of the European Union, ECB's president will need to start managing expectations specially after the Italian elections and the risk aversion environment.
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Session Recap: Dollar declares weekly victory

The USD has remained buoyed on Friday as soft global data and the 'sequester' have contributed to the market's cautious mood and benefited the USD for its safe-haven role. Stocks has rising on the day but USD dollar traded decoupled again and the Greenback was the winner against its major competitors.
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