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Forex Flash: ECB to leave refi rate unchanged - UBS

Expectations, it will be the word in the coming week when the RBA, BoC, ECB, BoE, and BoJ are scheduled to hold policy meetings. In the case of the European Union, ECB's president will need to start managing expectations specially after the Italian elections and the risk aversion environment.

"It will be interesting to see how the ECB responds after the Italian election and a return in risk aversion," points UBS analysts Geoffrey Yu and Manik Narain in a recent report. "LTRO repayments have also been somewhat disappointing, but with the balance sheet still contracting Draghi will need to start managing expectations."

Regarding the interest rate, the UBS bank expects "the refi rate to stay unchanged. "

Forex Flash: USD/JPY still has upside potential - Commerzbank

The uncertainty following the Italian elections has left its mark on the FX market, according to Lutz Karpowitz, analyst at Commerzbank. "The switch to risk-off mode has affected not only EUR-USD but also EUR-CHF and USD-JPY. Anyone who had hoped for the effects to wear off quickly has so far been disappointed".
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Forex Flash: Holding the 1.28/29 area is vital in sustaining a longer-term bull outlook - TD Securities

"No great surprise that the short-term bear trend in EUR/USD extended further this week," pointed TD Securities FX analysts Shaun Osborne and Greg Moore. With the EUR/USD bottoming at 1.2965 during Friday's American session, the pair has completed a 745 pips decline from February 1st.
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