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Euro bearish trend shaping up

Euro bears are getting ready to rush wildly towards the psychological barrier at 1.3000 as one of the main movers of the single currency in a not-so-far past, the manufacturing PMI prints, passed undetected by the market participants. However, the attention shifted towards the higher unemployment figures for the bloc as a whole, exceeding estimates and hitting primarily the youth component.

… to ‘sequester’ or not to ‘sequester’

The main focus today would be on the US economy, as automatic spending cuts could sever thousands of jobs, hit the key Defense and Education sectors, and endanger the continuation of social programs, just to mention a very few of unwelcome consequences.

As the uncertainties over the situation promise to hover over market participants throughout the session, the greenback has started to gather pace, rapidly leaving behind the key handle at 82.00, waiting for a later meeting between US President Obama and the Republican House Speaker John Boehner and other legislative leaders, amidst a confusing scenario where both Republicans and Democrats continue to kick the can down to each other’s backyard.

Back to the EUR/USD, further unsuccessful attempts to follow through the 1.3100 limestone during the week would be prompting investors to think that the market has reached a top in the area around 1.3150 (highs February 27th/28th).

In an effort to infer the next steps of the cross, we shifted to weekly charts, where we can see that the euro is trading well into the red cloud after penetrating the uptrend line set from July ’12 lows. In case the selling interest intensifies in the sessions ahead, the next stop south would be around the area of 1.2896/1.2920, where sit the 55-week moving average and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the upside from July’12 lows to February’13 highs, en route to the 61.8% retracement at 1.2697. In addition, the RSI has just crossed the equator at 50, indicative that the downside is still at play.

Forex: GBP/USD entrenched in negative territory at 1.5026/29

The GBP/USD continues to be buried in negative territory, despite a recent upside attempt that was stonewalled at the 1.5050 level. Earlier UK data has roiled the pair, which now settles at 1.5026/29, down -0.91%.
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Forex Flash: US ISM growth in focus – Deutsche Bank

The US they have been able to eke out a small amount of growth over the last 6 years (average ISM of 51.3) and in return the equity market is slightly higher than it was at the start. According to Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank, “Greece, Spain, Italy, Japan, Ireland and France in our sample have all had PMIs below 50 on average since early 2007 and all of these have equity markets notably lower than where they were at this point. Indeed its worth highlighting that the gap between the US ISM and French manufacturing PMI is now at record wides (since we have French data from early 1998).”
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