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Russia: CBR keeps rates on hold but cut likely in January - TDS

FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at TDS, notes that the CBR kept is Key Rate on hold at 11% at today’s Board meeting.

Key Quotes

“This was in line with the consensus, although a sizeable minority in the Bloomberg survey, 14/36, expected a 50 bps cuts. We thought the decision was too close to call.”

“The growth outlook for the Russian economy remains bleak. The CBR is forecasting that GDP will contract by 0.5-1.0% in 2016 and that in 2017 growth will be 0.0-1.0%.”

“While acknowledging a number of upside risks to inflation, the CBR is forecasting that CPI inflation will be 6% at the end of 2016 and will be on track to reach the 4% target in 2017.”

“We think that it is quite likely that the CBR cuts by 50 bps at the January meeting as the CBR is desperate to get rates lower in order to stimulate the weak economy and headline CPI inflation should have ticked down further by then. The main risk to a cut is continued ruble weakness.”

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