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China: November monetary data preview - ING

FXStreet (Delhi) – Prakash Sakpal, Economist at ING, suggests that the message from recent monetary data was consistent with that from real activity data; consumers are doing alright but the recovery elsewhere is stalling.

Key Quotes

“The release of the November money and credit data is any time from today to Tuesday next week. The consensus forecast for new Yuan loans is CNY735bn and M2 growth is 13.4% (prior CNY513.6bn and 13.5%). New loans more than halved in October from their September level and were at the lowest level since July 2014.”

“Bank loans have driven aggregate financing all year, part of the shift from shadow banking (first figure). There was a large decline in new medium- and long-term corporate loans in October but new mortgage loans also declined to their lowest level since April (second figure). Fall in the outstanding loans of Big-4 state-owned banks in October was the first since 2009 and it raised concerns about asset quality of these banks. The message from recent monetary data was consistent with that from real activity data; consumers are doing alright but the recovery elsewhere is stalling.”

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